6. The greenhouse effect and the climate emergency

Fossil fuels and the greenhouse effect

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What is the greenhouse effect?

The atmosphere is transparent to solar radiation that reaches the Earth. Part of it is absorbed by the Earth´s surface and warms it and part is reflected. But when solar radiation is reflected on the Earth's surface, it loses energy and is transformed into infrared energy that is absorbed by some molecules in the atmosphere (CO2 , CH4, H2O...) (Figure 1). We call these substances GHG (greenhouse gases) because, by retaining part of the heat that the Earth would emit to the outside, they cause the temperature to rise, acting as a greenhouse. 

Before the industrial era, greenhouse gas concentrations were kept at more or less constant levels by natural processes that generated or consumed them (volcanism, decomposition, respiration, photosynthesis, etc.). The radiation absorbed by the Earth and that emitted were kept in balance, providing a temperature suitable for life on Earth. 

The disproportionate emission of these gases since the industrial revolution has upset the balance. To reverse this process we need to know how these gases are generated and act on those sources.

                                                         

Greenhouse effect, NASA/JPL-Caltech, NASA Science, Licencia de la NASA

                  

                              Figure 1GEI, A loose necktie, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0                             Figure 2. Greenhouse effect, Physikinger, Wikimedia Commons, CC0 1.0 

How was CO2 produced to such a huge amount as to altere the atmospheric balance? Combustion reactions

Substances containing C and H (hydrocarbons) can react with oxygen, transforming into CO2 and H2O and releasing energy. These are called combustion reactions and they allow us to obtain energy from fossil fuels such as coal or oil. 

The invention of the steam engine during the industrial revolution unleashed these combustion processes. The operation of this machine consisted of burning coal, using that energy to convert liquid water into steam and taking advantage of the steam's energy to produce movement. In the 19th century, turbines and pistons that activated the mechanisms of industrial machines, steamboats, trains... were moved by this steam.

Today, thermal power stations operate on the same principle. The steam generated is used to move turbines connected to generators that produce electricity for many homes, offices, factories, schools, hospitals, etc. around the world.

        C + O2CO2 + H2

There are many other processes that allow us to take advantage of the energy from the combustion reactions. 

For example, to heat homes, kitchens, hot water, etc., natural gas (CH4) or other fuels such as propane (C3H8 ), butane (C4H10), biomass or wood are burned in boilers, fireplaces or kitchens:

CH4 + O2 → CO2 + H2

C3H+ O2CO+ H2

C4H10 + O2 → CO2 + H20

Fuels such as diesel or gasoline are burned in the engines of vehicles and machinery to produce their movement. If we simplify the gasoline formula:

C8H18 + O2 → CO2 + H20

The amount of combustion reactions that are occurring in the world at every moment, producing CO2, is exorbitant: Thousands of thermal power stations producing electricity; cars, planes, trains... transporting people; tractors in agricultural tasks to produce the world's food, trucks transporting that food and millions of other consumer items; heating in homes, businesses, public buildings... etc

The following graph shows the data on atmospheric CO2 concentrations measured by NASA since 1958 (red line) and those from earlier periods, estimated by indirect methods (yellow line). The scientific data show evidence of increasing concentrations since the industrial revolution.

Evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. Luthi, D., et al.. 2008; Etheridge, D. M., et al. 2010; Vostok ice core data/J. R. Petit et al.; NASA Science, Licensed by NASA.

What is climate change? How do we know it is real?

Climate change refers to long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns caused by the absorption of heat from excess greenhouse gases produced by human activity.

The chart below shows the change in global surface temperature compared to the pre-industrial average. Earth was approximately 1.36 degrees Celsius warmer in 2023. The most recent 10 years are the warmest on record. NASA's analysis generally agrees with independent analyses prepared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other research groups. 

GLOBAL LAND-OCEAN TEMPERATURE INDEX , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS),  NASA , Licensed by NASA

What are its effects?

The data above showed the variation in the Earth's average temperature. But the temperature change is not the same at every point on the planet. There are places that are much more affected by warming. The following video shows how the average temperature recorded at different points on Earth has changed over the last 100 years until 2015.

Temperature variations, bez.es, youtube, CC-BY

  • These temperature variations cause changes in the convection currents in the air, changes in the climate, and increase in extreme phenomena such as droughts, torrential rains, hurricanes...
  • The ice surfaces of the poles and mountain glaciers are decreasing. As a result, sea levels are rising.In this video you can see how the arctic ice surface has been changing over the last 45 years:

Artic sea ice area variation, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio, NASA, Licensed by NASA

  • The increase in ocean temperature causes dissolved CO2 to be released into the atmosphere , aggravating the problem. 
  • Ecosystems and biodiversity are being seriously affected by these changes .
  • Apart from extreme climate phenomena, increased drought and desertification can cause difficulties for food production and water access in some zones. The term "climate refugee" already exists for people who have to leave their homes because they have been seriously affected by the climatic consequences. 

Exercise. Think

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Look at the following graph. It measures the daily carbon dioxide concentration in the United States. Although the trend line of CO2 concentration is always upward, there are some oscillations within each year, as shown by the red line. What do you think they are due to?

CO2 atmosférico, Narayanese, Sémhur, and the NOAA, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

We are at a critical moment in the climate crisis. Why?

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Climate change mitigation, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 4.0

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific group convened by the United Nations to analyze what scientists around the world publish on climate change. Its mission is to evaluate this information and make an objective and scientific selection and presentation to the population about climate change, its natural, political and economic impacts and risks and the possible response options.

The figure represents anual CO2 emissions versus time and shows the IPCC forecast for the Earth's temperature increase in the coming years in different possible scenarios. The pink one (temperature increase of 4ºC) is the one we will live if greenhouse gases are emited with no restrictions, (no climate policies) The orange one corresponds to a future T increase of 2,5 - 2,9 ºC if we continue emiting under current policies. The blue line (temperature increase of 2,1ºC) would correspond to a scenario in which all countries comply with the proposed CO2 emission pledges and targets.  

In 2022, the IPCC warned that greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030 to have a good chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. We must act NOW.

 

Interactive video

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mp4

¿Qué pasará en las próximas décadas si no reducimos las emisiones de CO2?

consecuencias

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This is Earth in the next 100 years if we don't act on climate change, World economic forum, YouTubeCC-BY

consecuencias

Accesibility. Transcription of the interactive video text

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Transcripción de texto del vídeo interactivo para el alumnado que requiera la traducción al español o su lectura con el lector de texto:

Esto es lo que va a pasar en las próximas décadas si no actuamos con respecto al cambio climático.

En el 2030, los polos y grandes masas de hielo habrán seguido derritiéndose, subiendo 20 cm el nivel del mar. El 90% de los arrecifes de coral estarán amenazados por la actividad humana, y el 60 % en peligro de extinción. La disminución del rendimiento de los cultivos habrá empujado a 100 millones de personas más a la pobreza extrema. Las enfermedades relacionadas con el cambio climático matarán a 250.000 personas más cada año.

En el 2040, se sobrepasará el aumento de temperatura de 1,5ºC que se acordó intentar no superar en el Acuerdo de París. Bangladesh, Vietnam y Tailandia se verán amenazados por inundaciones anuales que desencadenarán migraciones masivas. Un 8% de la población mundial habrá visto gravemente recortado su acceso al agua potable. El ártico ya no tendrá hielo en verano. Los niveles del mar habrán aumentado 60 cm en el golfo de Mexico, donde los huracanes causarán inundaciones costeras devastadoras.

En el 2050, 2 billones de personas sufrirán temperaturas de más de 60ºC durante una décima parte del año. En una gran parte del mundo será necesario llevar mascarilla, no para prevenir enfermedades, sino para protegerse de la contaminación. En el noreste de EEUU habrá 25 inundaciones al año, frente a la única anual que había en el 2020. Habrá 140 millones de personas desplazadas por falta de agua o comida o por fenómenos meteorológicos extremos.

Más adelante, en 2100, las temperaturas habrán subido más de 4ºC, con ascensos aún mayores en latitudes norte. El aumento del nivel del mar habrá dejado las costas irreconocibles. Florida habrá desaparecido así como los arrecifes de coral y una cuarta parte de los hábitats mundiales de los peces. La falta de insectos polinizadores dará al traste con los cultivos. La sequía severa afectará al 40 % del planeta y se quemará un área del tamaño de Massachusetts cada año en EEUU. El sur de España y Portugal se habrán vuelto un desierto, abocando a millones de personas a la falta de agua y alimentos.

La política actual del “Todo sigue igual” está volviendo nuestro planeta inhabitable. Pero si hacemos una transición hacia una economía positiva con la naturaleza podríamos generar 395 millones de empleos. ¿Qué papel puedes jugar tú en la lucha contra el cambio climático?

Extension: What has humanity done so far to solve the problem?

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Union, Canva, Licencia de CANVA

It is not easy to organize the world, especially because of the very different situations in which countries find themselves. First, a significant part of the world had to realize that there was a problem. Then, the problem had to be understood, and then it had to be found out how to solve it, and this knowledge had to be extended to the largest possible part of the population. Finally, it has to be accepted that implementing these solutions will require effort and concessions . And learning to live in a different way. 

Getting 7 billion people to understand that they cannot continue to relate to each other in the way they have historically done, competitively, and that they have no choice but to cooperate is proving to be a challenge for everyone. We cannot continue to allow abuse and inequality, either on a large or small scale. Nor can we prioritize consumerism and appearances over values. And that means changing our daily reality. Learning to work as a team, to treat ourselves and others with kindness and respect, to put the common good above the individual , to value scientific knowledge and trust it when making decisions, to take responsibility for training ourselves, informing ourselves with reliable sources... etc.

 

EXERCISE: Below are the most important agreements that have taken place between countries at an international level regarding environmental protection.  Place them in chronological order :

  • The EU's first climate law mandates achieving climate neutrality by 2050. 1 → 0 1 → 2
  • The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is signed. This is the key international treaty for reducing global warming and helping to address the consequences of climate change. For the first time, it sets binding gas emission reduction targets for industrialized countries. 2 → 1 2 → 3
  • The European Parliament declares a climate emergency. 3 → 2 3 → 4
  • United Nations Conference on the Human Environment. It is the first major UN conference on international environmental issues and marks a turning point in the development of international environmental policy. 4 → 3 4 → 5
  • The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) enters into force. This is the key international treaty for reducing global warming and helping to address the consequences of climate change. For the first time, it sets binding gas emission reduction targets for industrialized countries. 5 → 4 5 → 6
  • Montreal Protocol. Restricts the use of chemicals that can damage the ozone layer. 6 → 5 6 → 7
  • Paris Agreement. The objective is that the temperature does not increase more than 1.5 ºC. In addition, the agreement addresses adaptation to climate change, and financial and technological support to developing countries. 7 → 6 7 → 8
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is established. In its first assessment report, the IPCC stresses the importance of climate change as a challenge requiring international cooperation to address its consequences, playing a decisive role in the creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). 8 → 7 8 → 9

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On this page of the European Parliament: Infographic: timeline of climate change negotiations you can see a timeline with the years and all the information.